????????????????????????????????5)
???????????? ???????[ 2011/10/28 14:20:59 ] ????????
S????????????????2???????????
1. Delay-S?????????????
Delay-S?????????????????????S??????????????
?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????к???????????????????????????????S?????????????????????S??????????
Delay-S????????????????????
Delay-S??????????????(CDF)??F(t)=K*(1-(1+??*t)exp(-??*t))??
Delay-S??????????????(PDF)??f(t)=K*(??^2)*t*exp(-??*t)??
???У?t?????K??????????????????????
Delay-S?????????????????????
?3 Delay-S???????CDF?
?4 Delay-S???????PDF?
2. Inflection-S?????????????
Inflection-S??????????????????????S??????????????
????S??????????????ü???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????и?????м???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
Inflection-S????????????????????
Inflection-S????????????????CDF????F(t)=K*(1-exp(-??*t))/(1+??*exp(-??*t))??
Inflection-S????????????????PDF????f(t)=K*??*exp(-??*t)*(1+??)/(1+??*exp(-??*t))^2??
???У?t?????K??????????????????????
Inflection-S??????????????????????????S??????????????????
?????ж?
??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????·?????????????????????????????????????????????????
???????????????????????????????????????????????????????£???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????·???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????Gompertz????????????Logistic???????
?????????е??????????е??????????????????????????????м?????????????г???????????????ж????????????????????????????
???????????R2???????????ж?
??????R2????????????????ж?????????????ж??????????????????????????????????????ж?????????????????ж?R2???????????ж??????????????????????????????У?R2?????????????????????????????
????в??????Q=??(y-y*)^2?????У?y?????????????y*???????????
??????????R2=1-Q/??(y-ya)^2?????У?y?????????????ya??????????????????
?ж?????R2???????1????????????
?????任??R2???????????ж?????Gompertz?????Logistic???????
Gompertz?????Logistic???????????????????????????????????????軔??????????б任????Gompertz?????ж????任????Logistic?????е????任?????????????????????????????????м?????????????????????任????????R2???????????ж??
Gompertz????
????????????????ж????任
???????任???????????y?????????任???????????y*
???????????????????????任???в??????Q????????R2
Logistic????
??????????????????????任
?????任???????????y???????任???????????y*
???????????????????????任???в??????Q????????R2
????????????????????????????????ж?
????R2???????ж????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????е??????ж????????????????е?????
?????????в??????Q=??(y-y*)^2???y^2?????У?y?????????????y*???????????
?????μ????????RNew=1-(Q/??y^2)^(1/2)
?ж?????RNew????1????????????
???????????????и????ж?
???????????п??????????????????????????£??????????????????????????á????????????????????????????????????????????N?????е?????????????????н???С????????????????á?????????????????FR=cos??=??(yy*)/((??y^2)^(1/2)* (??y*^2)^(1/2))??
??????????RNew????????????????????????????У???????FR?????????RNew????????????????????
????????????????????????????????
???潫?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????У?At??????t????????Ft??????t????????n????????????????θ?????????????????
???????MAD??Mean Absolute Deviation
??????????????????????????????????????(????????????????????)????????
?????MAD=(??|At-Ft|)/n??t=1??n
MAD??????????????????????á?MAD??????????????????????????????????
??????????MSE??Mean Square Error
?????MSE=(??At-Ft)^2/n??t=1??n
MSE??MAD??????????????????????????????????
??????????MFE??Mean Forecast Error
???????????????????????????
?????MFE=(??(At-Ft))/n??t=1??n
???У???(At-Ft)??t=1??n?????????????????RSFE(Running Sum of Forecast Errors)???????????????????RSFE??y????0????MFE??????0?????MFE?????????????????????????????????????????????
??????????MAPE??Mean Absolute Percentage Error??
?????MAPE=(??|(At-Ft)/At|)/n??t=1??n
??????MAPEС??10???????????
MAD??MFE??MSE??MAPE???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????п????????????????????????????????
??????
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2021/5/28 17:25:47??????APP??????????
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